Despite its significant geopolitical potential, the blue economy in Guilan province remains constrained by traditional, low-efficiency models. This research aims to develop a strategic foresight framework for transitioning toward an innovative blue economy by leveraging the Smart Specialization (S3) approach, thereby charting a roadmap for the province’s long-term economic sustainability. The study is applied in nature and employs an analytical-exploratory, mixed-methods approach. First, 22 key drivers were identified through thematic analysis and an expert panel (N=29). Subsequently, using structural analysis and MicMac software, the mutual relationships between these variables were mapped, and ultimately, probable futures were extrapolated based on key uncertainties using the Global Business Network (GBN) scenario planning model. The results reveal that ‘Active Economic Diplomacy in the Caspian Region’ and the ‘Entrepreneurial Discovery Process (EDP)’ are the most critical and highly uncertain drivers. Accordingly, four scenarios were formulated: ‘Caspian Blue Paradise’ (the normative/golden scenario), ‘Transit Hub’ (the exogenous scenario), ‘Isolated Laboratory’ (the constrained scenario), and ‘Stagnant Lagoon’ (the critical/crisis scenario). The findings demonstrate that achieving a sustainable blue economy in Guilan requires an organic integration between international diplomacy and the indigenous innovation system. Focusing resources on Smart Logistics, Marine Biotechnology, and Knowledge-based Tourism—as strategic smart specialization priorities—is the key to enhancing the province’s resilience against the hydrological and geopolitical shocks of the Caspian Sea.