A B S T R A C T
Notwithstanding its considerable geopolitical potential, Gilan province's blue economy continues to be hampered by outdated, low-productivity models. This research aims to develop a strategic foresight framework for transitioning toward an innovative blue economy by leveraging the Smart Specialization (S3) approach, thereby charting a roadmap for the province’s long-term economic sustainability. This applied study adopted an analytical-exploratory mixed-methods approach. First, 22 key drivers were identified through thematic analysis and an expert panel (N=29). Subsequently, using structural analysis and MicMac software, the mutual relationships between these variables were mapped, and ultimately, probable futures were extrapolated based on key uncertainties using the Global Business Network (GBN) scenario planning model. The results reveal that ‘Active Economic Diplomacy in the Caspian Region’ and the ‘Entrepreneurial Discovery Process (EDP)’ are the most critical and highly uncertain drivers. Accordingly, four scenarios were formulated: ‘Caspian Blue Paradise’ (the normative/golden scenario); ‘Transit Hub’ (the exogenous scenario); ‘Isolated Laboratory’ (the constrained scenario); and ‘Stagnant Lagoon’ (the critical/crisis scenario). The findings demonstrate that achieving a sustainable blue economy in Gilan requires an organic integration between international diplomacy and the indigenous innovation system. Focusing resources on Smart Logistics, Marine Biotechnology, and Knowledge-based Tourism—as strategic smart specialization priorities—is the key to enhancing the province’s resilience against the hydrological and geopolitical shocks of the Caspian Sea.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
The coastal and marine territories of the Caspian Sea basin, with Gilan Province serving as a pivotal node, currently confront an acute triad of ecological deterioration, hydromorphological volatility, and structural economic inertia. Conventional regional development paradigms across northern Iran have historically pursued rigid, top-down sectoral allocations and land-intensive industrialization, precipitating severe environmental externalities, such as the rapid regression of the Caspian Sea water level and the critical eutrophication of the Anzali Wetland, while failing to foster diversified high-value economic activities. In response to these structural challenges, the sustainable blue economy paradigm provides an integrative framework linking marine and maritime resource valorization with ecosystem conservation, social equity, and knowledge-intensive diversification. Concurrently, regional innovation policy has been fundamentally reshaped by the concept of Smart Specialization Strategies (S3‌), which prioritizes regional competitive advantages and localized capabilities through the bottom-up mechanisms of the Entrepreneurial Discovery Process (EDP). By orchestrating quadruple-helix interactions among academia, industry, regional governance, and civil society, EDP acts as a catalyst for identifying unique technological and territorial niches. Nevertheless, conventional smart specialization frameworks often presuppose stable macroeconomic conditions and are vulnerable to volatile external shocks. In geostrategic transition zones such as the Caspian littoral, characterized by rapid geopolitical reconfigurations around the International North–South Transport Corridor and profound ecological fragilities, static regional planning models lose operational efficacy. To address this theoretical and empirical gap, this study synthesizes the transformative logic of smart specialization with strategic foresight methodology to develop a resilient, anticipatory policy framework for the blue economy in Gilan Province.

Methodology
This research employed an applied, exploratory-analytical design underpinned by a sequential mixed-methods framework implemented in three distinct stages. In the first stage, qualitative domain knowledge and territorial variables were extracted through an extensive documentary analysis of high-level national and provincial development plans, complemented with semi-structured elite interviews and an expert panel comprising 29 specialists selected through purposive sampling across regional planning, marine sciences, environmental governance, and port logistics. The qualitative textual data were analyzed, coded, and categorized using MAXQDA software, yielding a synthesized taxonomy of 22 key variables classified into five structural dimensions: economic-maritime, technological-innovation, ecological-environmental, socio-spatial, and institutional-governance. In the second stage, the identified variables were analyzed through structural cross-impact analysis using the MicMac matrix environment. Experts evaluated the direct and indirect systemic interactions within a times 22×22 matrix, allowing for the mathematical identification of driving forces, regulatory components, target variables, and autonomous elements based on their displacement coordinates on the influence-dependence plane. In the third stage, scenario generation was conducted utilizing the Global Business Network (GBN) matrix technique. The two most influential driving forces characterized by the highest levels of structural uncertainty were selected as the intersecting axes to configure a four-quadrant scenario space. The structural narratives, causal mechanisms, and strategic implications of the resulting scenario matrix were systematically validated through a second-round Delphi panel involving 10 senior specialists in regional development and marine policy.

Results and Discussion
The structural cross-impact computations processed 484 pairwise relationships, indicating a high level of systemic instability wherein institutional and geoeconomic drivers fundamentally dictate the trajectory of provincial development. The analysis established two critical uncertainties as the foundational axes of the regional scenario space: the internal-institutional axis representing the level of institutionalization, maturity, and effectiveness of the Entrepreneurial Discovery Process (EDP), and the external-geoeconomic axis representing the dynamism, stability, and openness of Caspian economic diplomacy and transit corridor integration. The intersection of these critical uncertainties generated four distinct future scenarios for Gilan’s blue economy. The first scenario, Caspian Blue Paradise (Desirable State: High EDP / Active Diplomacy), depicts a future in which active multilateral diplomacy converges with mature quadruple-helix collaboration, transforming Gilan into a competitive regional hub for smart green logistics, digitized port operations, high-tech mariculture, and advanced marine bio-refineries within a rigorous Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) protocol. The second scenario, Transit Transshipment (Extroverted-Hollow State: Low EDP / Active Diplomacy), portrays an environment characterized by thriving corridor transit agreements and active international trade, which, due to persistent internal institutional inertia and the absence of localized innovation capabilities, reduces the province to a passive, low-yield transit corridor burdened by severe ecological footprints without meaningful technological spillovers. The third scenario, Enclosed Laboratory (Isolated-Adaptive State: High EDP / Passive Diplomacy), captures a trajectory in which indigenous academic and entrepreneurial ecosystems succeed in generating cutting-edge marine and biotechnology solutions, yet external market access remains severely constrained by geopolitical isolation, tariff barriers, and inactive diplomacy, thereby trapping innovation within an unscalable domestic perimeter. The fourth scenario, Stagnant Marshland (Critical Crisis State: Low EDP/Passive Diplomacy), delineates a systemic breakdown across both internal innovation mechanisms and external economic diplomacy, leading to severe underinvestment, accelerated environmental collapse along the coastline, port obsolescence exacerbated by receding water levels, and the mass out-migration of specialized human capital. The analytical findings underline that infrastructure-led development alone cannot ensure sustainable growth; rather, territorial competitiveness depends upon transitioning from hierarchical interventionist governance to an agile, collaborative framework that empowers regional innovation brokers.

Conclusion
This research presents a novel theoretical and methodological integration of smart specialization and strategic foresight, demonstrating that territorial economic transformation within ecologically fragile coastal interfaces requires an explicit coupling of entrepreneurial discovery with long-term uncertainty management. The empirical findings indicate that the sustainable development of Gilan Province cannot rely on conventional transit strategies or top-down industrial projects. To avert the hollow dynamics of the Transit Transshipment scenario and the systemic decay of the Stagnant Marshland, policymakers should actively align regional resource allocation with two specialized priority domains: intelligent green maritime logistics and high-value marine bioeconomy. At the institutional level, the establishment of an agile regional Blue Economy Council is paramount to orchestrate multi-actor discovery platforms, dismantle bureaucratic lock-ins, and institutionalize adaptive infrastructure investments responsive to Caspian hydromorphological shifts. Ultimately, strategic anticipatory governance, continuous monitoring of cross-border geoeconomic signals, and localized knowledge valorization represent the decisive mechanisms for steering Gilan toward a resilient and ecologically integrated blue future.

Funding
There is no funding support.

Authors’ Contribution
The first author was responsible for conceptualizing the research, developing the theoretical framework, supervising the project, and conducting the final review. They also performed data collection, analyzed the findings, and drafted the original manuscript.
The second author contributed to methodology development, data collection, data analysis, interpretation of results, and scientific review. All authors have read and approved the final manuscript.

Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.

Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.