دانشگاه بین المللی چابهار آمایش و توسعه نواحی ساحلی و مرزی 3116-0549 2 1 2026 06 01 Spatial Planning of Southern Iranian Cities and Its Role in the Optimal Management of Climate Migration: A case study of Region 8 Zoning برنامه‌ریزی فضایی شهرهای جنوبی ایران و نقش آن در مدیریت بهینه مهاجرت‌های اقلیمی مطالعه موردی: منطقه 8 آمایشی 39 58 735495 10.22034/jpd.2025.2042602.1061 FA سید علی بدری گروه جغرافیای انسانی و برنامه‌ریزی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران مصطفی آریان کیا گروه جغرافیای انسانی و برنامه‌ریزی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران راضیه کریمی آغچه گروه جغرافیا و گردشگری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران Journal Article 2026 02 12 A B S T R A C T The present study examines the role of spatial planning in the optimal management of climate migration in the southern cities of Iran (Region 8 Zoning) and introduces spatial planning strategies to better manage climate migrations. This research is applied in nature (strategic developmental), descriptive-analytical in method, and follows an inductive research approach. The data collection method is based on documentary-survey studies, utilizing the Delphi technique, and the key drivers of the research have been identified through the cross-impact analysis method. The statistical population of the study consists of 47 specialists and experts in the field of regional development and spatial planning, selected using the snowball sampling method. To analyze the data and conduct the structural analysis of the impact of each of the indicators influencing the spatial planning of southern Iranian cities, the MICMAC software was utilized. The results of the study indicate that among the 41 factors examined, 10 key drivers play a significant role in the spatial planning of southern Iranian cities. These include population distribution, economic impacts, governmental planning, national policy, climate migration, natural and sustainable resources, energy efficiency, water resources, social security, and air pollution. The findings also reveal that climate migration, primarily driven by climate change, water resource shortages, and social and economic conditions, requires comprehensive and coordinated management and planning. Key drivers such as population distribution, economic impacts, governmental policies, and energy efficiency play a crucial role in shaping a sustainable spatial structure capable of addressing regional challenges. Extended Abstract Introduction In the twenty-first century, climate change has emerged as one of the primary threats to humanity. Recent research indicates that climate variability and change significantly affect forced migration, both within and across borders. Climate change leads to the displacement of large populations from rural areas to urban centers, and when life in urban areas becomes unbearable, many individuals continue their migration to other locations. Consequently, environmental migration, particularly migration due to severe droughts caused by climate change, has recently emerged as one of the most pressing issues in global political agendas. In Iran, this issue holds particular significance in the southern regions of the country, which face specific climate-related challenges such as water scarcity, extreme heat, and severe drought. The southern areas of Iran are grappling with extensive climatic challenges that have profound effects on the lives of people in these regions, leading to an increased rate of climate migration from the central and southern areas to the northern latitudes of the country. The aim of the present study is to examine the role of spatial planning in the optimal management of climate migration in southern Iranian cities and to propose models for improving the environmental and social conditions in these regions. The main research question is: How can regional spatial planning in southern Iranian cities be optimally designed to play an effective role in the efficient management of climate migration of residents from the southern and central zones of the country? Methodology This study is applied in nature and, in terms of its method and approach, falls under descriptive-analytical research, with an inductive approach. It aligns with the foundations of futures studies, using an exploratory and analytical perspective to identify key drivers influencing regional development within the framework of spatial planning in Region 8 of the country. Quantitative models have been employed to achieve this. The data collection method is based on documentary-survey studies, utilizing the Delphi technique. The statistical population of the study consists of 47 specialists and experts selected using the snowball sampling method. In this context, 12 indicators and 41 items have been utilized. To analyze the data and conduct a structural analysis of the impact of each indicator on the spatial planning for the optimal management of climate migration in the southern cities of the country, the MICMAC software has been employed. Results and discussion The results obtained from the study indicate that among the 41 factors examined, 10 key drivers have been identified as influential in the spatial planning of southern Iranian cities (Region 8 Zoning). These include population distribution, economic impacts, governmental planning, national policy, climate migration, natural and sustainable resources, energy efficiency, water resources, social security, and air pollution. These factors were consistently identified through both direct and indirect methods. They should be integrated into the spatial planning of southern Iranian cities by relevant organizations to ensure the protection of the existing conditions and to implement effective spatial planning principles for both current and future needs. In analyzing the results of this study, it can be concluded that: In the southern regions, spatial planning should be designed to prevent excessive population concentration in a single area and provide a balanced distribution of services and infrastructure. This approach can alleviate the pressures of climate migration and maintain environmental balance. Spatial planning in the southern regions must take into account the economic impacts arising from climate migration. Changes in local income sources and the establishment of economic activities can contribute to labor market balance and economic sustainability. Government policies play a crucial role in managing climate migration and spatial planning. Developing comprehensive plans and local regulations for affected areas can help prevent demographic and environmental crises. National macro-policies, such as the development of transportation and energy infrastructure, play a significant role in the distribution and sustainability of the population in southern regions. These policies must be aligned with climate change and aim to prevent unwanted migration. Sustainable exploitation of natural resources, such as solar and wind energy, is particularly important in the southern areas. These resources can play a crucial role in enhancing environmental and economic sustainability in the region. Water scarcity in southern Iran is one of the primary drivers of climate migration. Spatial planning must consider water management strategies, including water recycling and the use of innovative technologies, to ensure the sustainable provision of these resources. Maintaining social security in the face of population displacements caused by climate change is essential. Spatial planning should incorporate necessary security measures to prevent social crises and mitigate dissatisfaction among affected communities. Conclusion The conclusion of this study, based on the analysis of 41 factors and the identification of 10 key drivers influencing the spatial planning of southern Iranian cities (Region 8 Zoning), indicates that climate migration, primarily driven by climate change, water scarcity, and social and economic conditions, requires comprehensive and coordinated management and planning. Drivers such as population distribution, economic impacts, governmental policies, and energy efficiency play a vital role in shaping a sustainable spatial structure capable of addressing regional challenges. The findings indicate that economic factors, natural resources, and governmental planning play a decisive role in managing migrations, and it is essential that these factors are considered at various levels of policymaking. Additionally, this research specifically emphasizes that the use of sustainable energy and energy efficiency, along with effective water resource management, can provide effective solutions for reducing climate migration and enhancing the resilience of southern cities. Funding There is no funding support. Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper. پژوهش حاضر اقدام به بررسی نقش برنامه‌ریزی فضایی در مدیریت بهینه مهاجرت‌های اقلیمی در شهرهای جنوبی ایران (منطقه 8 آمایشی کشور) و معرفی راهکارهای برنامه‌ریزی فضایی جهت مدیریت بهتر مهاجرت‌های اقلیمی پرداخته است. این پژوهش به لحاظ هدف، کاربردی (از نوع توسعه‌ای راهبردی)، و از نظر روش، توصیفی–تحلیلی و به لحاظ رویکرد پژوهش، استقرایی است. روش گردآوری اطلاعات مبتنی بر روش مطالعات اسنادی-پیمایشی مبتنی بر تکنیک دلفی بوده که با استفاده از روش تحلیل تأثیر متقابل اقدام به شناسایی پیشران‌های پژوهش شده است. جامعه آماری پژوهش شامل 47 متخصص و کارشناس در زمینه توسعه منطقه‌ای و آمایش سرزمین است که بر اساس روش گلوله برفی انتخاب‌شده‌اند. جهت تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها و تحلیل ساختاری تأثیرگذاری هر یک از شاخص‌های مؤثر بر برنامه‌ریزی فضایی شهرهای جنوبی ایران از نرم‌افزار میک‌مک استفاده‌شده است. نتایج حاصل از پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که از میان 41 عامل بررسی‌شده، 10 عامل توزیع جمعیت، تأثیرات اقتصادی، برنامه‌ریزی دولتی، سیاست ملی، مهاجرت اقلیمی، منابع طبیعی و پایدار، بهره‌وری انرژی، منابع آب، امنیت اجتماعی و آلودگی هوا به عنوان پیشران‌های کلیدی مؤثر در برنامه‌ریزی فضایی شهرهای جنوبی ایران اثرگذار هستند. همچنین نشان می‌دهد که مهاجرت‌های اقلیمی، که به‌طور عمده ناشی از تغییرات آب و هوایی، کمبود منابع آب، و شرایط اجتماعی و اقتصادی هستند، نیازمند مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی جامع و هماهنگ است. پیشران‌هایی نظیر توزیع جمعیت، تأثیرات اقتصادی، سیاست‌های دولتی، و بهره‌وری انرژی نقش حیاتی در شکل‌گیری یک ساختار فضایی پایدار دارند که بتواند با چالش‌های منطقه‌ای مقابله کند.

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